Greenhouse Gas Projections

Greenhouse gas projections allow for an understanding of the dynamics of GHG emissions under different reduction scenarios. Projections are based on implementing greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction measures. These reduction measures are projects, policies, and programs to help reduce GHG emissions using business-as-usual, medium, and high-growth scenarios. These scenarios use 2021 GHG emissions and project to 2050.

Projections only include reduction measures associated with the transportation and energy sectors.

Showcasing all reduction scenarios at once compares the effectiveness of the reductions applied. a business-as-usual scenario shows an 12.94% emission reduction by 2030 and a 25.98% emission reduction by 2050. A medium grown scenario shows a 21.38% emissions reduction by 2030 abd a 50.90% emissions reduction by 2050. Lastly, a high growth scenario shows a 25.45% emissions reduction by 2030 and 62.69% emissions reduction by 2050.

A business-as-usual scenario does not apply any greenhouse gas reduction measure, only grid carbon intensity based on National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) grid emissions intensity coefficients from 2040-2050 for Florida and the Default Carbon Intensity Growth Grates (CAFE Standards).

A medium growth scenario applies population growth projections from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) Projections of Florida Population by County 2025-2050. Applied measures included energy and transportation reduction measures, grid carbon intensity based on National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) grid emissions intensity coefficients from 2040-2050 for Florida, and the Default Carbon Intensity Growth Grates (CAFE Standards).

A high growth scenario applies population growth projections from the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) Projections of Florida Population by County 2025-2050. Applied measures included energy and transportation reduction measures, grid carbon intensity based on National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) grid emissions intensity coefficients from 2040-2050 for Florida, and the Default Carbon Intensity Growth Grates (CAFE Standards).

During the Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP) development, all sources and sinks will be accounted for which include greenhouse gas reduction measures from them. These projection will be updated to showcase all identified greenhouse gas reduction measures.

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